The eurozone has some of the symptoms of 'Japanification', but not the full-blown condition. Critically, it has avoided outright price deflation - a key element of the experience in Japan.
Demand drivers for US healthcare will remain intact in with most companies managing profitability pressures but headline risk remains, says Fitch Ratings. Fitch Ratings expects North American sovereign ratings to be stable in Both the U. Saudi Aramco's IPO will have little direct fiscal effect, but could help offset the economic impact of renewed government austerity measures by allowing the Public Investment Fund PIF to boost domestic investments, Fitch Ratings says.
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The ratings and sector outlooks for U. Global car sales are likely to decline by around 3. The federal government's two primary tools to stimulate the economy, fiscal and monetary policy, may be constrained relative to previous cycles, potentially exacerbating cyclical US public finance USPF funding deficits and delaying the rebuilding of issuer reserves during and coming out of the next downturn.
More limited possibilities for aggressive macro policy easing could culminate in a slower path of recovery after any future recession. Recent political volatility in a number of Latin American countries, including Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Peru, reflects a broader theme of rising political risk that could amplify negative sovereign credit trends in the regions.
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There are currently no positive Ratings Outlooks among Latin American sovereigns and a large number of Negative Outlooks. Global sovereigns enter with the world economy slowing and policymakers debating what to do about it, says Fitch Ratings. Most countries are exposed to the trade dispute between China and the US, making it more difficult to calibrate domestic policy settings given the international uncertainties.
Spending plans from the two largest UK political parties suggest that the period of budget deficit reduction is over, Fitch Ratings says. We anticipated fiscal loosening when we affirmed the UK's 'AA' sovereign rating in October but, while the scale and timing remains uncertain, risks to our fiscal projections have risen substantially.
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China's reported plans for widespread mergers could complement the authorities' efforts to address significant weaknesses at small banks, potentially over time leading to stronger and more transparent institutions. Xerox's confirmed buyout offer for HP could provide strategic benefits for both companies due to challenging secular trends in commercial printing and personal computers, but any potential transaction would likely require significant debt funding given HP's large size.
Fitch Ratings has launched an ESG 'heat map' covering 54 different sub-sectors across 4, transaction and programme ratings for structured finance SF and covered bonds CVB , to provide further insight into the relevance of ESG factors to credit ratings.
Argentina's new president-elect, Alberto Fernandez, faces urgent policy challenges including turning vague campaign promises into a detailed economic plan, renegotiating the IMF Stand-by Arrangement, and restructuring debts with bondholders. Subscribe on iTunes: Fixed Interests Podcasts. The China Corporate bond market has been evolving rapidly in recent years. The latest issue of China Corporate Bond Market Blue Book is an update to our last edition published in May which presents our observations on key market developments, including corporate bond defaults, post-default workouts, new bond categories, and emerging credit derivatives products.
Headline fiscal balances will weaken across much of the Gulf Cooperation Council GCC in and , maintaining pressure on sovereign and external balance sheets, Fitch Ratings says. Last year's fiscal policy loosening has been exacerbated by lower oil prices. Download the Commodities Credit Journal.
Turkey has continued to make progress in rebalancing and stabilising its economy, leading to an easing in downside risks since our previous review in July. Prices for steel products in western Europe have fallen in from their peak and are likely to remain subdued into , Fitch Ratings and CRU say. Steel producers' margins have been pressured, but this could ease towards 2H20 due to capacity cuts and a decline in input costs. The contrast between labour market performance and manufacturing activity indicators in the advanced economies is persisting.
Rising real primary expenditure underlines the difficulty of reining in the public sector wage bill and persistent social pressures for better services in the context of divisions within the governing ANC. We expect the companies' net losses after reinsurance and catastrophe reserve releases to be limited in relation to their overall earnings. The return of a hung parliament following Canada's recent federal election should not lead to significant changes to major economic policies. When I had my first daughter, I spent a lot of energy justifying why I wanted to keep learning and growing in my job.
It started by analyzing its database of driver profiles and trips to identify distinct groups of customer archetypes. The team then pulled in external data from a variety of sources to build a scoring model to identify drivers in a given city or neighborhood who fit one of the ten archetypes the business had developed. They then tailored offers and communications to each of those segments.
Within one year, the company grew its customer base by more than 10 percent and increased its revenues by almost 20 percent. Philips US applied advanced analytics to simulate the market potential for various combinations of price tiers, channels, and product portfolios—not at a country or even regional level, but city by city in dynamic markets. With that information in hand, the marketing team created offers that targeted the most promising segments in each city. Social media allows companies to listen in on unfiltered conversations consumers are having about their preferences, experiences, and habits.
Many services exist, such as Hyve, Winkle, BrandWatch, Synthesio, or Google Analytics, to unlock insights from analysis of online discussions, consumer reviews, topical blogs, and keyword-driven trend analysis. Active listening enables companies to detect relevant buzz early on be it positive, neutral, or negative , react swiftly, and unearth clues that can lead to innovations.
Beiersdorf, the personal-care company and owner of the Nivea brand, tapped into an ongoing social-media conversation to develop a completely new product line. Further analysis revealed that the issue was widely discussed and that users shared advice on how to remove various types of stains. In response, the company developed a new type of deodorant that prevented yellow stains on white clothes.
To test the concept, Beiersdorf turned to almost 2, dedicated followers of the Nivea brand. It turned out that consumers were not only concerned about yellow stains on white clothes but also about white stains on dark-colored clothes. McKinsey: What is the role of nontraditional insights techniques at your company? We differentiate between exploration and assessment. The selection of research techniques depends on the research need.
For example, we frequently need to assess whether a product or a concept is relevant to consumers. We need reliable benchmarks for this purpose, which is why we run standardized quantitative tests. When it comes to generating new ideas, we use explorative techniques.
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These include netnography and observation. Data mining can also be explorative. Many of these techniques are well-known, but the trick is to apply them individually, in context, and creatively. McKinsey: How do you ensure your arsenal of insights techniques and approaches is always up to date? We work with selected innovative agencies and closely monitor what is going on at the methodological front. If everyone digs in the same hole, everyone will come up with the same insights. This is why we often approach an ideation challenge from several angles.
Within our community of experts on the research team, we assign champions to every key method to make sure we are always up to date in these areas. McKinsey: How do you determine whether a new insights approach is relevant for your business? We try to test and learn as much as we can. We run tests of competing methodologies in close collaboration with our agencies. If the research brings something new, something that goes beyond the obvious, we use it more often.